Spatial-temporal modelling of localised relational impacts on youth livelihoods under the changing climate in informal peri-urban settlements of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
This research project aims to develop strategies that enhance youth resilience in the face of growing climate vulnerabilities in Tanzania
Project description:
- Researchers:Victoria Mwakalinga
- Implementing institution:Ardhi University
- Country of implementation:Tanzania
- Single/multi-country:Single-country
- Thematic area:Livelihoods
- Geographical context:Peri-urban
- Project duration:3 years
Problem statement and research question/s
While much research has focused on economic and physical impacts of climate change, there is a significant gap in understanding how it affects the relational wellbeing of young people. As agriculture, a traditional rural livelihood, becomes increasingly unsustainable due to climate change, many young people are migrating from rural areas to urban and peri-urban settlements.
However, peri-urban areas like those surrounding Dar es Salaam lack the infrastructure and services to accommodate this growing influx, leading to overburdened systems, worsening living conditions, and heightened vulnerability among youths. Peri-urban areas, often informal settlements, face significant climate-induced risks, such as flooding, extreme heat, drought, food insecurity and unemployment, which undermine the stability youth migrants seek. Structural inequalities and limited resources make it difficult for youth to compete for livelihoods in prime urban areas, leaving them reliant on social networks for support.
Relational wellbeing, which plays a critical role in building resilience and is important in helping youth navigate the challenges posed by climate change. Examining this intersection, between youth livelihoods and relational wellbeing, is critical for developing strategies that enhance youth resilience in the face of growing climate vulnerabilities.
Methods
The study employs a comprehensive, multi-layered, mixed-methods approach that integrates quantitative, qualitative and geospatial techniques. The research takes a transdisciplinary approach by combining geospatial science with social sciences. The study's data collection will involve three categories: quantitative spatial-temporal, qualitative, and socio-spatial data. Quantitative spatial-temporal data will focus on climate variables like temperature, rainfall, extreme weather, land use, and vegetation health, which will be assessed using high-resolution satellite imagery and NDVI indices. Non-spatial data will include surveys on socio-economic factors such as youth livelihoods, income, and social networks. Qualitative insights gathered through in-depth interviews, and photovoice will be integrated with geospatial data to map how climate events affect specific locations and youth resilience strategies.
Results/intended findings
The expected outputs include:
- Spatial-temporal maps showing the frequency and severity of climate events,
- Identification of the most vulnerable areas,
- A geospatial dataset for policy planning and disaster risk reduction.
The key performance indicators are the following:
- Completion of climate event maps,
- Development of a geospatial database,
- Submission of maps and data to youth and policymakers.
The study also aims to explore how climate disruptions affect the social networks, family ties, and community relationships of youth. The expected outputs include:
- Qualitative data on changes in youth social networks and family dynamics,
- An understanding of how relational wellbeing contributes to resilience,
- A report on key relational factors influencing climate adaptation.
Intended/Expected outcome/s
The aim of this study is to develop a comprehensive framework that integrates spatial-temporal modelling with relational wellbeing theories to assess and strengthen the resilience of youth livelihoods in response to climate change in Dar es Salaam’s informal peri-urban settlements. The study will generate new insights into the role of social networks, community ties, and relational wellbeing in shaping youth responses to climate-induced disruptions. The goal is to produce both theoretical advancements by adapting relational wellbeing frameworks and practical outcomes through actionable policy recommendations.
How outcomes will be measured
The research team will continuously monitor the implementation of project activities to ensure they are on schedule and aligned with the project’s objectives. Activities such climate change events impacting youth livelihoods in informal peri urban settlements, youth livelihood and resilience mechanism to livelihoods strategies, emotional and psychological support, wellbeing under stress of climate change. Regularly assess the immediate outputs of the project, such as the number of youths engaged, the frequency of community gatherings, and the development of relational wellbeing (RWB) frameworks.
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